How Long Can Intel Stay No.1?

With latest projections showing Samsung on track to push past the $30 billion mark this year, then Intel’s current run-rate of $9.5 billion a quarter looks catchable if current conditions in the memory market last into 2012.

How long can Intel hold onto its crown as the world’s largest semiconductor company?

Samsung could grow at 50% this year, and maybe next year, and its $9.6 billion of proposed capex this year is a lot more than Intel’s proposed $4.9 billion.

25 years ago, Samsung announced its intention of becoming the world’s No.1 semiconductor company and holding onto that position for the succeeding 100 years.

Intel has now reigned for 19 years as the world No.1 taking over the top slot in 1991.

The longest reign any company ever had as No.1 was Texas Instruments, which held the crown for 25 years between 1959 and 1984.

Can Intel match that?

Well it looks as if it’s going to be a close-run thing.


Comments

4 comments

  1. In the semiconductor industry scale is everything and we all know this. So as long as Intel is so far ahead at no 1, unless it trips over its own bootlaces, it is likely to remain no 1. The reason is simple, it can afford to out spend and out invest anyone else. The strategy would be something like:
    1) Buy into or all of a disrupting technology before it knocks you out.
    2) Invest heavily in making your own disrupting technology.
    3) Invest in making your cash cows pay for as long as possible.
    A case in point, a semiconductor company, now in trouble, that insisted it wanted to invest a smaller proportion of its profits in new technology and achieve what was average for the industry, despite being much smaller than the top 3. The strategy would have worked if they could have predicted which markets would become important and just backed those heavily (like a start-up), but they cut accorss the full range. The result, its going to be a long time before they get back to where they were a decade ago.

  2. Good point, FTM, unless CPU prices fall you are probably right. TSMC does about $10 billion a year. Some way behind Intel and Samsung

  3. Somehow, I can’t reckon how a company that is not into CPU design would become the king. (yes, am no good at bean counting)
    Of course they could acquire the missing skills, if needed. BTW, how big is TSMC?

  4. INVENTORS – DO NOT TRUST INTEL
    I invented a CPU cooler – 3 times better than best – better than water. Intel have major CPU cooling problems – “Intel’s microprocessors were generating so much heat that they were melting” (iht.com) – try to talk to them – they send my communications to my competitor & will not talk to me.
    Winners of major ‘Corporate Social Responsibility’ awardS!!!
    Huh!!!!
    When did RICO get repealed?”
    INVENTORS – DO NOT TRUST INTEL!!!
    BTW, I have the evidence – my competitor gave it to me.
    BBTW, I am prepared to apologise to Intel if;
    • They can show that the actions were those of a single individual in the company, acting outside corporate policy, and:
    • They gain redress on my behalf.
    Although playing a major role in it’s facilitation, the power of the internet appears to have come as much a surprise to Intel as it has to the catholic church.
    Inventors – help your fellow inventors – share your experiences with companies – good and bad.

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