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Thanks to Future Horizons for this one – reasons why IC prices will be high this year:
The IMF expects the world economy to grow 4.2% in 2011.
Capacity is sold out,
Capex is flat
ASPs have been increasing since Q209 – six quarters in a row,
Unit volumes are following their usual 11% annual growth,
There is no excess inventory
There’s no excess capacity to build any excess inventory.
There’ve been six successive quarters of flat industry capacity,.
There are shortages everywhere from substrates (e.g. 200mm wafers), equipment (immersion steppers on a one year order lead-time), lead frames.
??Industrial and auto ICs are sold out,
Even memory is starting to get tight.
Well at least some of the people he shafted – his wife and ex-CTO – are hopefully living it up on some tropical island. Though I suspect he CTO has a complete set of EDA tools on his laptop 🙂
Ed’s a bum to you and me, FETguy, but he delivered $s to the VCs.
That bum got hired again?! This explains much about semiconductor business. He can get a new wife. Anyway, I look forward to reading more of his exploits, with the emphasis, as always, on “exploit”.
Well, FETguy, I did get a sniff that another tranche of Ed’s diaries might become available – although his wife ducked out with the CTO, the VCs thought he’d done OK, and he now has a new CEO-ship. When I get my hands on gthe diaries, rest assured I’ll publish them.
Good stuff. Lines up with what we see.
When might we get an update on your old protagonist, Ed? Though he’s a feckless bastard, I’d really come to look forward to hearing about his exploits, and frankly I worry about him. How’s he doin’ these days?