Did Intel Fall For A Techno-Ponzi Scheme?

Did Intel management fall for that decades old Techno-Ponzi scheme – phase change memory.

A hilarious piece in Semiaccurate points out that on launch in July 2015 the claim for 3D XPoint was: 1000x faster than NAND, 1000x the endurance of NAND, and 10x denser than DRAM.

Intel’s Xpoint is pretty much broken

By IDF 2015 in the autumn of that year the density figure vis a vis DRAM was down from 10x to 4x.

A year later, at IDF2016, the 1000x faster-than-NAND figure had been reduced to 100x.

And the 1000x better endurance than NAND had shrunk to 3x.

No wonder Micron’s CEO, a techie, was reported to have looked uncomfortable at the launch.

And just to make matters seem even worse, Semiaccurate says that in private conversations Intel is saying the figures are worse than these.

Of course we don’t know that 3D XPoint is a phase change or not, though most people think it is.

If it is, then Intel fell for one of the oldest tricks in the semiconductor play-book.

For 40 years phase-change memory has been a useful tool for extracting cash from VCs, budgets from managements and investments from corporates. All of it has been spent to little or no avail earning it the Techno-Ponzi scheme soubriquet in the process.


Comments

13 comments

  1. It’s all very arguable, AnotherDave, but extracting cash from the gullible, as you put it, could justifiably be regarded as a scam. Ponzi schemes are taking money for something which you’re not going deliver – and that sounds a little like what PCM has done. As for EUV I agree it is harsh to call it a Ponzi scheme at the moment because pre-production machines have been delivered, but if EUV never makes it into a production line then it won’t have delivered what it accepted money to deliver. And, even so, I think strictly speaking, in a Ponzi scheme there is never an intention to deliver so you could argue that neither PCM nor EUV should be called that. But as a tongue-in-the-cheek ironic descriptor it passes muster IMHO.

  2. Keith mentioned the “mem”-“ristor” and if he hadn’t done that faster than me I would have had the honor to be first. So I’m second. Better than third.

    “mem”-“ristor”- neither memory nor resistor.
    Nothing.

  3. Associating something with the Ponzi type of setup is pretty heavy. Just because the engineering challenges for something desirable can’t ever be overcome, I’m not sure the default position is that it was a scam.

    PCM, yep that has defo been used purely to extract cash from the gullible. EUV I’m not sure is quite in that league yet.

    I’m happy to stand corrected on that though…

  4. Wow Yes Overlt, with all the money invested in EUV it will be the biggest Techn-Ponzi scheme in history if it is never inserted into a production line.

  5. Of all Ponzi schemes, EUV seems the grandest to date.

  6. Now that’s a very interesting thought SEPAM, why did phase-change reel in the suckers when bubble memory didn’t? Maybe it was because Ovshinsky was such an icon. Maybe because PCM is so amazingly fast in lab conditions. Maybe because Gordon Moore once wrote a paper on it. I don’t know. BTW PCM ICs have been sold – Nokia actually put one in a phone

  7. SecretEuroPatentAgentMan

    Strange that the bubble memory never enjoyed the same financial suction capacity even though there were some actual products launched.

  8. Absolutely Keith loads of flying pigs but, as Pistorio once said, the semi industry runs on optimism and hope springs eternal. . . . .

  9. Same category as the Memristor, where is that now? And any ‘memory’ that involves ‘forming’ is a pink flying thing… been there in the 1980’s.

  10. Ha Ha DontAgree, very droll but very true

  11. I guess that then explains why Intel is missing in “The Ten (+10) Smartest Companies In 2016” list …

  12. Spot on, AnotherDave, The great Stan Ovshinsky used it over and over again to raise cash from the gullible.

  13. It seems to me that phase change has endured as a cash for vapourware endeavour persists only because beancounters are increasingly dabbling in the technical realms.

    Serves ’em right.

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