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“An automatic mechanism might be designed, which would be triggered once an invasion was confirmed,” says the paper.
“China’s high-tech industries would be immobilised at precisely the same time the nation was embroiled in a massive war effort,” adds the paper, “even when the formal war ended, the economic costs would persist for years.”
China’s response posted on the website of the Chinese State Council’s Taiwan Affairs Office stated “the mainland’s pursuit of cross-strait reunification is definitely not for TSMC.”
The paper says that the People’s Liberation Army’s goal for an invasion is 14 hours, while the PLA reckons the U.S. and Japan need 24 hours to respond.
“If this scenario is close to being accurate, China’s government might well be inclined to attempt a fait accompli as soon as it is confident in its relative capabilities,” says the paper, speculating that the U.S. and allies could also form contingency plans to evacuate TSMC workers.
The Taiwan response to all this is reported to be less than enthusiastic
If TSMC’s Hsinchu fabs were destroyed, the world would be cast into a deep and prolonged depression. The ripple effect would cause millions of deaths. The US Army War College memo implies a superficial analogy to the nuclear doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), which developed over the years to prevent Armageddon as the response to an accidental first strike by either the US of the Soviet Union.
By contrast, there is every reason to believe that, following an invasion of Taiwan, the PRC would continue to operate TSMC’s fabs supplying its US and worldwide customers. Why kill the goose that lays the golden eggs and eliminate the potential for future leverage?
The hedge against the unlikely worst-case scenario that the PRC would not continue to supply the US is not to pro-actively shoot ourselves in the head, but to take certain steps now. These steps are real but harder than writing ill-informed memoes: 1) play the same game the rest of the world is playing and subsidize advanced TSMC fabs on US soil, 2) subsidize Globalfoundries return to state-of-the-art processes in its NY fabs, 3) establish a joint US/industry consortium with the semiconductor intellectual property and CAD flows required to facilitate access to Intel’s fabs by fabless semi companies. Strategic issues with the PRC should be addressed with multi-lateral, secret negotiation through the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
“Formal end” to the war? What does that mean? Something like the Redcoats saying, let’s meet in Paris for a peace treaty? My one regret, if the War College memo is not adopted by the DoD would be that we wouldn’t get to see its authors walking to work naked without their cell phones!
Pat Hays
I agree Pat I think your 1) 2) and 3) are the right way to go.
Thanks for bring the War College memo into the light of day!
What about an US invasion to Taiwan?
US doesn’t have to invade Taiwan. US never formally return Taiwan to China after it accepts the island from Japan when it surrender. There are some technicality that US can simply turn Taiwan into its 51st state.
It has a certain “Dr. Strangelove” feel to it doesn’t it..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOQ-SCNq6s4