SEMI survey shows '02 fab-tool market to fall 32%

SEMI survey shows '02 fab-tool market to fall 32%
By Semiconductor Business News
December 5, 2002 (2:08 a.m. EST)
URL: http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20021204S0046

CHIBA, Japan--It's another terrible year for the chip-equipment industry, as leading tool makers in total expect sales of $18.9 billion in 2002, down 32% from $28 billion in 2001, according to a survey from the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade association.

The results, released at the Semicon Japan trade show here today, is based on a survey of global semiconductor equipment manufacturers. The forecast results are based on data collected between October and November 2002 by the SEMI Industry Research and Statistics department.

Survey respondents expect the market for capital equipment to show a modest recovery beginning next year, growing 15% to $21.8 billion in 2003, and 21% to $26.4 in 2004, according to SEMI of San Jose.

Survey results indicate an expected flattening of the market in 2005, with growth of 4% to $27.5 billion, according to SEMI.

"History has shown forecasting in this industry to be an ine xact, if not precarious, task," said Stanley Myers, president and CEO of SEMI, in a statement. "Nonetheless, the 2002 year-end consensus is in line with the available year-to-date results and reflects a second year of extremely challenging business for SEMI members," he said.

"The outlook for a $3 billion market expansion for equipment in 2003 fits the prevailing sentiment that capital expenditures will resume in the latter part of the year as inventories are burned-off and manufacturing capacity utilization increases," he said.