China entering a ‘dark forest’, say scientists

China has entered a ‘dark forest’ now it has been cut off from US chip technology, says an article co-written by Luo Junwei, a researcher at the China Academy of Science (CAS) Institute of Semiconductors, and CAS vp Li Shushen.

“Over the years, all the fundamental research achievements in the global semiconductor and micro-electronic sector have been included in the process design kit (PDK) of the EDA,” say the authors .

“As Chinese chip makers could buy and use the PDK in the past, our decision-makers, government officials and industry players tended to think that China could develop its chip sector without fundamental research,” says the article, “but since the US turned off the ‘lighthouse,’ we have now entered a dark forest.”

Apparently China’s Ministry of Education canceled the semiconductor physics and devices course taught in universities in 1997, since when China has faced sa shortage of semiconductor researchers.

China’s IC R&D investment is 5% that of the US, says the article.

“China’s chip makers are now two generations behind their foreign counterparts as they focused too much on yield improvement and did not spend time on developing the next generation transistors,” say the authors.“researchers in the universities and institutions cannot really help find out the problems in the industry as they only read academic papers or attend conferences.”

According to expert assessments, China won’t be able to produce 28nm chips with its own litho tools until 2029 at the earliest.

In an article written last October Li Guojie, CAS’ chief scientist, said that China should now focus on mature technologies used to make 28nm to 55nm chips as it would not likely be able to make DUV litho tools for many years.

However if the US-Japan-Netherlands pact on machine exports to China is very far-reaching, it may mean China will have to confine itself to 65nm ICs.