China ten years behind and staying there

China is ten years behind the leading edge and will stay that way, says Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger.

“The export policies that have been put in place recently, we have seen the Dutch in place, the US policies, Japanese policies, sort of put a floor in the 10 to 7nm range,” Gelsinger told the WEF Davos meeting. “we are racing to go below 2nm and then 1.5nm, and you know we see no end to that in sight.”

The problem for the Chinese is sourcing all the elements of the massively complex international supply chain needed to make cutting edge ICs.

“It is not like China is not going to keep innovating, but this is a highly interconnected industry,” added Gelsinger, “the mirrors of Zeiss, the equipment assembly of ASML, the chemicals and resist in Japan, the mask making of Intel. All of those together, I think this is a 10-year gap, and I think it is a sustainable 10-year gap with the export policies that have been put in place.”