TSMC has always been my bellwether and for 2019 I think we need to pay careful attention. Bad economic news has been spreading inside the fabless semiconductor ecosystem (tool and IP budgets have been tightening) but I think it is a bit premature. Let’s take a look at the TSMC 2018 Q4 earnings call and talk more about it in the comments section:
- Q1 of $7.3B to $7.4B, down 14%
- TSMC expects 2019 revenue to grow 1% to 3% compared to 6.5% in 2018
- TSMC cites inventory congestion
- TSMC expects weak demand until 2H19
- TSMC 2018 CAPEX 10.5B ($10-11B 2019)
- Predicts global GDP growth from 2.3% in 2018 to $2.6% in 2019
- Predicts 2019 non memory semiconductor growth at 1%
- Predicts long term TSMC growth of 5%-10% CAGR