No-one likes being put on the spot and yet we all like a forecast…and as we all know, the only guarantee with a forecast is that it is wrong. Sports commentators have carved out a special niche for themselves with the ‘commentators curse’, just as they extol the virtues of an individual or a team, the sporting gods prove them wrong in spectacular fashion! Governments are no better…economic forecasts don’t usually hold for more than a quarter, which is what makes Gordon Moore’s prediction all the more impressive.
I’m sure everyone in our industry is familiar with Moore’s Law… while at Fairchild Semiconductor in 1965 he was asked to contribute to the 35th anniversary Electronics Magazine with a prediction for the future of the semiconductor components industry over the next 10 years…his response was ‘the number of transistors in a ‘dense IC’ would double every two years’! What a prediction, it was correct for the next 50 years and is only now starting to ‘fade’, surely the SWAG* to beat all SWAGs?!
So what has Moore’s Law got to do with Moortec?
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