18 Views of the Silicon Horizon

IC Insights shares its fall forecast

Rick Merritt, EETimes
9/18/2014 01:40 PM EDT

SUNNYVALE, Calif. — The semiconductor industry will see "good but not great growth," with rates in the high single digits, in 2014 and beyond, according Bill McClean, president of the market watcher IC Insights.

Electronic system sales will rise 5% this year, nudging chip sales up 7%. Capital equipment spending is rebounding from a 3% decline last year and will grow 12% this year (see below).

China remains the bull, leading in consumption of electronic systems but not gaining much traction as a chip maker, McClean said. His annual Fall Forecast presentation explored the silicon horizon on many fronts, uncovering a few recent surprises:

• The "final value" of TSMC's output outstripped that of Intel.
• Communications systems have become a bigger share of the pie than computers.
• More analog than digital chips are sold each year.

DRAM and, to a lesser extent, analog sales are driving growth this year. Logic remains the biggest slice of the pie, but it is also the one dragging overall selling prices down by 3% (see below).