Jan. 26, 2026 –
By Nick Flaherty, eeNews Europe
Semiconductor market researchers are at odds on the impact of AI on the supply of chips in 2026. While all see strong growth, some are predicting that the market has fundamentally changed, and that the market will top one trillion US dollars by the end of this year.
That is not possible as there is not enough capacity and there are underlying weaknesses, according to leading researcher Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons, who has just released his forecasts for the year.
“These are eye watering numbers and, with all due respect, this is not going to happen,” he said.
He sees a growth of around 12% for 2026, less than the 22% in 2025. The growth could be as high as 18%, but this is very different from other forecasts which are as high as 40% on the back of the boom in demand for AI chips.