By Peter Clarke, eeNews Europe (January 19, 2022)
"Prepare for the inevitable recession now. There are no soft landings," says Malcolm Penn, CEO of Future Horizons
A recession in the semiconductor market is coming in Q4 of 2022 or Q1 of 2023, says leading industry analyst Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons.
Penn was speaking in an online conference where he provided his forecast for the global chip market in 2022. His analysis is that the market momentum is at a turning point with a collapse likely to hit in the 4Q22, possibly masked by the normally seasonal downturn. Penn's mid-range estimate is for 10 percent annual growth in 2022, with the fourth quarter hit badly.
Penn's mid-range prediction is just below IC Insights forecast of 10.8 percent growth but ahead of the 8.8 percent growth figure given by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics at the end of 2021. Other analysts have also predicted overcapacity in 2023, with the move to building fabs in the US and Europe, so-called onshoring, as the biggest risk.
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